March Madness and The Science of Bracketology

NCAA Final Four Logo
(C) “NCAA Final Four Logo.” NCAA: March Madness, NCAA, 2018, www.ncaa.com/.

Every March, students at Central Catholic come together and rally around the hype that college basketball’s best has to offer. Known as “March Madness”, for its plethora of exciting games, the NCAA Tournament features 68 teams, battling for the glory of a national championship. One of the most famous traditions associated with this event is the filling out of brackets. Millions of people participate in guessing the outcome of the tournament, creating a bonding point to which all people, regardless of basketball knowledge, can participate in. This tradition has developed over time, increasing the popularity of this event, making it into of the most anticipated sporting events of the year.

In order to understand the importance of the brackets, a brief history is necessary. The first official March Madness bracket pool was said to have originated in a Staten Island bar in 1977, where 88 people filled out a bracket, with a grand prize of around $880. Today it is estimated that nearly 60 million Americans complete brackets each year, with around $1 billion in spent in off-book gambling. Why has this event become so popular? The answer is simple: the excitement of creating your own bracket and constantly following it makes this sporting event entirely applicable to you in a sense where you predict the outcomes and discover, through watching the games, how correct you are. Associated with this are motivations of money and bragging rights. Behind these brackets that draw such large crowds, whether it’s a pool with family or friends, the reality of having the best bracket evokes a feeling of satisfaction and superiority, incomparable to spectating in any other sport.

Another aspect of interest in these brackets is the probability of being correct. Some estimate that there is a 1 in 128 billion chance of getting a perfect bracket. This makes filling out a bracket fully approachable to anyone, there are essentially no wrong choices. Anything can happen in this tournament, hence the nickname “March Madness”. Nothing is guaranteed, however some upsets are more likely than others. For example a sixteen seed has never beaten a one seed in the history of this event, and only once have a four number one seeds made it to the Final Four. So ultimately somebody who has never watched college basketball in their life can fill out a better bracket than somebody who studies it for a living. That being said, there are many different approaches to filling out a bracket. Some go through countless hours of research and game film, while other simply choose which mascot they like the best or which team has the better colors. In many aspects, the success of a bracket is almost entirely based on chance. So this March, I wish you all the best of luck in filling out your brackets as we attentively watch one of the most exciting sporting events of the year.